G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

October 18, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF): http://boolefund.com/hummingbird-resources-plc-humrf/

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII).   Here’s a description of GIII from its most recent quarterly report (September 2020):

“The Company designs, sources, and markets an extensive range of apparel, including outerwear, dresses, sportswear, swimwear, women’s suits, and women’s performance wear, as well as women’s handbags, footwear, small leather goods, cold weather accessories, and luggage. The Company also operates retail stores and licenses its proprietary brands for several product categories.”

GIII has a market cap of $673 million, with $252.8 million in cash and $640.7 million in debt (including operating leases) as of July 31, 2020.  The stock price is $13.96.

 

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First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for G-III Apparel Group:

    • EV/EBITDA =3.29
    • P/E = 10.17
    • P/B = 0.55
    • P/CF = 1.68
    • P/S = 0.26

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

G-III Apparel Group has a Piotroski F-Score of 6.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is OK.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  GIII has TL/TA of 45.5%, which is decent.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At G-III Apparel Group, insider ownership is approximately 11%.  (The CEO Morris Goldfarb owns 8.7%.)  This is good.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At GIII, dividend yield is zero.  The buyback yield is 2%.  Thus, shareholder yield is 2%.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of GIII places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See G-III Apparel Group’s most recent quarterly report (September 2020): http://ir.g-iii.com/static-files/fa86b53f-b15e-4e28-a8ce-498f1b5aa49d

Also, check out the following write-up: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/G-III_APPAREL_GROUP_LTD/8646711273#description

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: EPS (earnings per share) may be $1.00.  With a P/E of 10, the company would be worth $10 a share, which is 28% lower than today’s $13.96.
    • Mid case: EPS (earnings per share) is likely to reach at least $4.00 once the global economy returns to normal (which is likely to happen within the next year or less).  With a P/E of 14, GIII would be worth $56 a share, which is over 300% higher than today’s $13.96.
    • High case: EPS (earnings per share) may reach at least $5.00 once the global economy returns to normal.  With a P/E of 16, GIII would be worth $80 a share, which is over 435% higher than today’s $13.96.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

October 11, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Hummingbird Resources Plc. (OTCMKTS: HUMRF).  The company is an African gold producer, headquartered in London.  It has a market cap of US$177.5 million, with US$6 million in cash and US$26 million in debt as of June 30, 2020.  The stock price is US$0.50 (HUMRF).

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Hummingbird Resources:

    • EV/EBITDA = 2.70
    • P/E = 6.16
    • P/NAV = 0.51
    • P/CF = 3.20
    • P/S = 1.03

(I have used P/NAV, price-to-net asset value, instead of P/B, because it’s more accurate in this case.)

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

Hummingbird Resources has a Piotroski F-Score of 7.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is good.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  HUMRF has TL/TA of 30.4%, which is very good.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At Hummingbird Resources, insider ownership is approximately 3%.  This is decent.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At Hummingbird Resources, dividend yield is zero.  The buyback yield is 1%.  Thus, shareholder yield is 1%.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of HUMRF places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See Hummingbird Resources’ most recent investor presentation (September 2020): https://wp-hummingbirdresources-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/09/11091214/HUM-Q2-presentation-v2-CURRENT.pdf

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: NAV (net asset value) per share is $0.98.  The company is probably worth at least half NAV.  That’s $0.49, which is 2% lower than today’s $0.50.
    • Mid case: If production grows as planned, Hummingbird Resources is probably worth least 150% of current NAV.  That’s $1.47 per share, which is over 190% higher than today’s $0.50.
    • High case: If gold prices move higher and production grows as planned, then EBITDA could double from $73 million to $146 million.  EV/EBITDA for HUMRF should be at least 6x.  That means the stock would be worth $2.42 per share, which is over 380% higher than today’s $0.50.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

October 4, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD).  The company distributes microelectronic circuits and electronic components for military, space, and industrial applications.  MPAD has a market cap of $29.7 million, with $15.3 million in cash and no debt.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Micropac Industries:

    • EV/EBITDA = 2.97
    • P/E = 7.72
    • P/B = 1.02
    • P/CF = 15.28
    • P/S = 1.12

EPS (earnings per share) for the trailing twelve months is $1.49, while the current stock price is $11.50.

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

Micropac Industries has a Piotroski F-Score of 7.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is good.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  MPAD has TL/TA of 7.5%, which is outstanding.  As noted earlier, the company has $15.3 million in cash and no debt.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At Microcap Industries, insider ownership is approximately 82.5%.  The interests of insiders are well-aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  However, one person, Heinz-Werner Hempel, owns over 77% of the shares.  This gives him control of the company, which could be a negative.  That said, Hempel is 91 years old and likely will want some liquidity fairly soon, which would lead him to sell some shares.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At MPAD, dividend yield is 0.83%.  The buyback yield is zero.  Thus, shareholder yield is 0.83%, which is negligible.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of MPAD places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See MPAD’s most recent 10-Q (filed on July 13, 2020) for the second quarter of 2020: https://www.micropac.com/writable/investors/micropac10q05302020.pdf

Also, check out the following discussion, which is dated but still relevant: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/MICROPAC_INDUSTRIES_INC/1629739972

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: The company is probably worth at least book value, which is $11.32 per share.  That’s 1.6% lower than today’s $11.50.
    • Mid case: EPS for the trailing twelve months is $1.49.  The P/E should be at least 8.  That translates into a stock price of $11.92.  Add to that the $5.89 in net cash per share, and you get a stock price of $17.81, which is about 55% higher than today’s $11.50.
    • High case: Once the coronavirus is no longer an issue, normalized EPS may be $2.00 (and slowly growing).  MPAD may easily be worth a P/E of 10.  That translates into a stock price of $20.00.  Add to that the $5.89 in net cash per share, and you get a stock price of $25.89, which is 125% higher than today’s $11.50.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

September 27, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI).  From the company’s website:

“BBSI is a leading provider of business management solutions, combining human resource outsourcing and professional management consulting to create a unique operational platform that differentiates it from competitors.  The Company’s integrated platform is built upon expertise in payroll processing, employee benefits, workers’ compensation coverage, risk management and workplace safety programs, and human resource administration.  BBSI’s partnerships help businesses of all sizes improve the efficiency of their operations.  The Company works with more than 6,500 clients across all lines of business in branches across the nation.”

BBSI has a market cap of $378 million, with $130 million in cash and $30 million in debt.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Barrett Business Services:

    • EV/EBITDA = 5.52
    • P/E = 8.52
    • P/B = 2.09
    • P/CF = 7.50
    • P/S = 0.41

EPS (earnings per share) for the trailing twelve months is $5.81, while the current stock price is $49.50.

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

BBSI has a Piotroski F-Score of 7.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is good.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  BBSI has TL/TA of 77%, which is decent.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At BBSI, insider ownership is approximately 4.5%.  This is OK.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At BBSI, dividend yield is 2.45%.  The buyback yield is zero.  Thus, shareholder yield is 2.45%.  (Historically, the company has bought back shares at a rate of about 0.6% a year, and very well may do so again.)

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of BBSI places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items,  hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See BBSI’s investor presentation from November 2020: https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_f91edf87e792d9795164992068fa7995/bbsi/db/393/3398/pdf/BBSI+Investor+Presentation+-+November+2020.pdf

Also, check out the following: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/BARRETT_BUSINESS_SVCS_INC/4870001850#description

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: EPS (earnings per share) may be $3.70 on the low end, due in large part to the impact of the coronavirus on the U.S. economy.  BBSI is currently trading at a P/E of 8.52.  Assuming the P/E stays the same, the stock would trade at $31.52.  That is 36.3% lower than today’s $49.50.
    • Mid case: EPS for the trailing twelve months is $5.81.  The P/E should be at least 15.  That translates into a stock price of $87.15, which is over 75% higher than today’s $49.50.
    • High case: Normalized EPS may be $7.00 (and eventually growing).  BBSI may easily be worth a P/E of 20.  That translates into a stock price of $140.00, which is over 180% higher than today’s $49.50.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

September 6, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA).  Here’ a description from the company’s website:

“Delta Apparel, Inc., along with its operating subsidiaries…is a vertically-integrated, international apparel company that designs, manufactures, sources, and markets a diverse portfolio of core activewear and lifestyle apparel products. The Company is a market leader in the direct-to-garment digital print and fulfillment industry, bringing DTG2Go technology and innovation to the supply chain of its customers. The Company specializes in selling casual and athletic products through a variety of distribution channels and tiers, including outdoor and sporting goods retailers, independent and specialty stores, better department stores and mid-tier retailers, mass merchants and e-retailers, the U.S. military, and through its business-to-business e-commerce sites. The Company’s products are also made available direct-to-consumer on its websites…as well as through its branded retail stores.”

DLA has a market cap of $102 million, with net debt of $141 million and an enterprise value of $243 million.  (The company has $14.5 million in cash.)

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Delta Apparel:

    • EV/EBITDA = 4.41
    • P/E = 7.38
    • P/B = 0.76
    • P/CF = 1.85
    • P/S = 0.28

(Normalized EBITDA is approximately $55 million, while normalized earnings is about $2.00 per share.)

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

DLA has a Piotroski F-Score of 5.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is mediocre, but not bad.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  DLA has TL/TA of 67%, which is decent.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At DLA, insider ownership is approximately 10%.  This is good.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At Delta Apparel, dividend yield is zero.  The buyback yield is also zero.  Thus, shareholder yield is zero.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Delta Apparel places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items,  hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

The company’s latest 10-K for the year ended October 3, 2020: https://ir.deltaapparelinc.com/all-sec-filings/content/0001437749-20-024322/0001437749-20-024322.pdf

See also Delta Apparel’s investor presentation: https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_22a95897b10d9e539390def1d3448830/deltaapparelinc/db/297/2570/pdf/DLA+Investor+Presentation+Mar+2020+Final.pdf

Finally, check out the following: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/DELTA_APPAREL_INC/3235701808

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: EBITDA may be $40 million on the low end.  DLA is probably worth at least 6x EV/EBITDA.  That translates to $14.38 a share, which is 2.5% lower than today’s $14.75.
    • Mid case: Normalized EBITDA is approximately $55 million.  DLA is likely worth at least 6x EV/EBITDA.  That translates to $39.86 per share, 170% higher than today’s $14.75.
    • High case: Normalized EBITDA is at least $55 million.  DLA may easily be worth 8x EV/EBITDA.  That translates to $63.81, which is over 300% higher than today’s $14.75.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

August 30, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX).  AdvanSix is a leading manufacturer of Nylon 6, a polymer resin used to produce engineered plastics, fibers, filaments, and films. These products are used in a wide range of applications, including automotive, food and industrial packaging, carpeting, wire and cable, building and construction, and sports apparel.  (AdvanSix is also an integrated manufacturer of caprolactam, ammonium sulfate fertilizers, phenol, acetone, and more.)  ASIX has a market cap of $389 million, with $73 million in cash and $509 million in debt.

Note: AdvanSix is the low-cost producer of Nylon 6.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for AdvanSix:

    • EV/EBITDA = 6.71
    • P/E = 8.46
    • P/B = 0.87
    • P/CF = 11.04
    • P/S = 0.42

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

ASIX has a Piotroski F-Score of 6.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is decent.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  ASIX has TL/TA of 67%, which is decent.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At ASIX, insider ownership is approximately 1%.  This is low.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At AdvanSix, dividend yield is zero.  The buyback yield is 3%.  Thus, shareholder yield is 3%.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of AdvanSix places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items,  hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

The company’s investor presentation from June 9, 2020 can be downloaded here: https://investors.advansix.com/~/media/Files/A/AdvanSix-IR/reports-and-presentations/stifel-virtual-cross-sector-insight-conference-presentation.pdf

Also see: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/AdvanSix_Inc./4161299349

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: The company may be worth book value of $15.01.  That’s 8% higher than today’s $13.87.
    • Mid case: Normalized EBITDA is approximately $250 million.  ASIX is likely worth at least 8x EV/EBITDA.  That translates to $55.81 per share, over 300% higher than today’s $13.87.
    • High case: Normalized EBITDA may be $300 million.  ASIX may be worth 10x EV/EBITDA.  That’s $91.49 per share, about 560% higher than today’s $13.87.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Universal Technical Institute (UTI)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

August 16, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Universal Technical Institute (UTI).  The company is the nation’s leading provider of technical training for automotive, diesel, collision repair, motorcycle, and marine technicians.  UTI has a market cap of $266 million, with $92 million in cash and $147 million in debt.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Universal Technical Institute:

    • EV/EBITDA = 4.28
    • P/E = 8.86
    • P/B = 1.55
    • P/CF = 3.54
    • P/S = 0.73

(These figures are based on normalized EBITDA of $75 million and normalized earnings of $30 million.)

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

UTI has a Piotroski F-Score of 7.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is good.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  UTI has TL/TA of 59%, which is decent.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At UTI, insider ownership is approximately 17%.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At Universal Technical Institute, dividend yield is zero.  Also,  buyback yield is usually zero.  Thus, shareholder yield is usually zero.  (Some preferred shares were converted to common shares recently.  That’s a one-time event.)

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Universal Technical Institute places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items,  hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

The company’s investor presentation from August, 2020 can be downloaded here by clicking on Q4 FY2020 Investor Presentation (near the bottom of the page): https://investor.uti.edu/

Also see: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/UNIVERSAL_TECHNICAL_INST/3858201884#description

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: EBITDA may only be $50 million.  Fair value for EV/EBITDA is probably at least 9x.  That translates to a share price of $12.10, which is over 45% higher than today’s $8.15.
    • Mid case: Normalized EBITDA is approximately $75 million.  UTI is likely worth at least 9x EV/EBITDA.  That translates to $19 per share, over 130% higher than today’s $8.15.
    • High case: UTI may be worth 12x EV/EBITDA.  That’s $25.90, which is over 215% higher than today’s $8.15.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

August 2, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Burnham Holdings Inc. (BURCA).  The company is a market leader in the design, manufacture, and sale of boilers and related HVAC products and accessories used in a wide range of residential, commercial, and industrial applications.  BURCA has a market cap of $46.5 million, with $5.4 million in cash and $15 million in debt.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Burnham Holdings:

    • EV/EBITDA = 5.04
    • P/E = 7.96
    • P/B = 0.56
    • P/CF = 4.74
    • P/S = 0.24

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

BURCA has a Piotroski F-Score of 7.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is good.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  Burnham Holdings has TL/TA of 41%, which is good.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At BURCA, insider ownership is approximately 11%.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At Burnham Holdings, dividend yield is 8.6% and buyback yield is usually zero, so shareholder yield is 8.6%.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Burnham Holdings places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items,  hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

Here is the company’s investor presentation from April, 2020: https://www.burnhamholdings.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2020-SH-Presentation-Version-to-post-on-website.pdf

BURCA has paid a dividend for 75 consecutive years.  Also, the company’s boilers are an essential business because people need to heat their homes.

Also see: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/BURNHAM_HOLDINGS_INC/6768678962

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: Book value per share is $18.09.  BURCA could be worth 50% of book value, or $9.05 a share.  That’s 11.4% lower than today’s $10.21.
    • Mid case: BURCA is likely worth at least book value.  That’s $18.09, or 77% higher than today’s $10.21.
    • High case: BURCA may be worth 1.5 times book value.  That’s $27.14, which is 165% higher than today’s $10.21.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Select Interior Concepts (SIC)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

July 19, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look Select Interior Concepts, Inc. (SIC).  Select Interior Concepts is a leading provider of interior surface products for residential and commercial builders.  The company has two subsidiaries: Residential Design Services (“RDS”) and Architectural Surfaces Group (“ASG”).   Select Interior Concepts offers a broad range of design-oriented products across flooring, countertops, cabinets, and other highly desirable and customizable high end interior products.  SIC has a market cap of $107 million, with $37 million in cash and $211 million in debt.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Select Interior Concepts:

    • EV/EBITDA = 5.40
    • P/E = 15.30
    • P/B = 0.68
    • P/CF = 3.78
    • P/S = 0.18

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

SIC has a Piotroski F-Score of 7.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is good.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  Select Interior Concepts has TL/TA of 65%, which is decent.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At Select Interior Concepts, insider ownership is approximately 2%.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At SIC, dividend yield is zero and buyback yield is about 1.4%, so shareholder yield is 1.4%.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Select Interior Concepts places it in the top 10 stocks on our screen, or the top 0.4% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items,  hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

Here is the company’s investor presentation from December, 2020: https://ir.selectinteriorconcepts.com/static-files/34061be2-eecf-4793-982e-2ee3bdb1bcd2

Note that Select Interior Concepts has a new CEO, Bill Varner, as of June, 2020.  Previously, Varner was CEO of United Subcontractors, Inc. (USI), a leading provider of insulation installation and distribution services to the residential and commercial construction markets.  Prior to USI, Varner served as President and CEO of Aquilex Corporation, a leading provider of specialty services to the energy sector.

Select Interior Concepts has never missed a closing, and 90% of their business is repeat.  Moreover, with its asset light business model and with variable costs, the company has been able to position itself well to weather the downturn caused by the coronavirus.

Also see: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/SELECT_INTERIOR_CONCEPTS_INC/3197088490

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: Book value per share is $6.20.  SIC could be worth 50% of book value, or $3.10 a share.  That’s 26.5% lower than today’s $4.22.
    • Mid case: SIC is likely worth at least 1.5x  book value.  That’s $9.30, or 120% higher than today’s $4.22.
    • High case: Normalized EBITDA is roughly $60 million.  SIC is probably worth an EV/EBITDA of at least 9x.  That would mean the stock is worth $14.46, which is over 240% higher than today’s $4.22.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Manitowoc (MTW)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

July 12, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW).  Manitowoc has been producing cranes for nearly 100 years.  MTW has a market cap of $351 million, with $104 million in cash and $347 million in debt.  (The company has no significant debt due until 2026.)  The current stock price is $10.17.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Manitowoc:

    • EV/EBITDA = 4.16
    • P/E = 5.40
    • P/B = 0.56
    • P/CF = 2.59
    • P/S = 0.20

(These figures reflect the trailing twelve months of results.  Revenues, earnings, and cash flows will be down this year due to the impact of the coronavirus, but should reach even higher levels in a few years.)

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

MTW has a Piotroski F-Score of 8.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is very good.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  Manitowoc has TL/TA of 61%, which is decent.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At Manitowoc, insider ownership is approximately 2.2%.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At MTW, dividend yield is zero and buyback yield is about 4%, so shareholder yield is 4%.  This is good.  (Note: The company has suspended its buybacks for now in order to conserve cash to manage through the coronavirus.)

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Manitowoc places it in the top 10 stocks on our screen, or the top 0.4% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items,  hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

Here is the company’s third quarter 2020 presentation from November, 2020: https://s21.q4cdn.com/264200883/files/doc_presentations/2020/11/05/Q3-2020-MTW-Earnings-Call-Presentation_Nov-5-2020.pdf

CEO Barry Pennypacker and his associates have significantly improved Manitowoc’s operations.  They have meaningfully improved margins.  They have upgraded the product portfolio.  They have reduced costs.  And they have increased operating efficiencies.  Moreover, Pennypacker has a track record of significantly improving operations, which he did when he was at Gardner Denver.  See: https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/MANITOWOC_CO/6436441136#description

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: Book value per share is $17.87.  Manitowoc could be worth 50% of book value, or $8.94 a share.  That’s 12.1% lower than today’s $10.17.
    • Mid case: Normalized EBITDA is approximately $230 million.  Manitowoc is likely worth an EV/EBITDA of at least 6x.  That would mean the stock is worth roughly $33.82, which is over 230% higher than today’s $10.17.
    • High case: Normalized EBITDA may be $345 million.  Manitowoc is probably worth an EV/EBITDA of at least 6x.  That would mean the stock is worth $53.82, which is about 430% higher than today’s $10.17.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.