Vera Bradley, Inc. (VRA)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

January 10, 2021

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Lazydays Holdings, Inc. (LAZY): http://boolefund.com/lazydays-holdings-inc-lazy/

Karora Resources Inc. (KRRGF): http://boolefund.com/karora-resources-inc-krrgf/

Diamond S Shipping Inc. (DSSI): http://boolefund.com/diamond-s-shipping-inc-dssi/

DHI Group, Inc. (DHX): http://boolefund.com/dhi-group-inc-dhx/

Saga Communications Inc. (SGA): http://boolefund.com/saga-communications-inc-sga/

Northwest Pipe Co. (NWPX): http://boolefund.com/northwest-pipe-co-nwpx/

Smart Sand Inc. (SND): http://boolefund.com/smart-sand-inc-snd/

Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK.TO): http://boolefund.com/terravest-industries-inc-tvk/

LGL Group, Inc. (LGL): http://boolefund.com/lgl-group-inc-lgl/

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII): http://boolefund.com/g-iii-apparel-group-ltd-giii/

Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF): http://boolefund.com/hummingbird-resources-plc-humrf/

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Vera Bradley, Inc. (VRA).  This is from the company’s website: “Vera Bradley is a leading designer of women’s handbags, luggage and travel items, fashion and home accessories, and unique gifts. The brand’s innovative designs, iconic patterns, and brilliant colors inspire and connect women unlike any other brand in the global marketplace.”

VRA has a market cap of $266 million, with $76.8 million in cash and $152.4 million in debt.  The stock price is $7.98.

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First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Vera Bradley:

    • EV/EBITDA = 5.03
    • P/E = 8.29
    • P/B = 0.87
    • P/CF = 8.47
    • P/S = 0.55

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

Vera Bradley has a Piotroski F-Score of 7.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is good.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  Vera Bradley has TL/TA of 38.3%, which is good.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At Vera Bradley, insiders own 26% of the shares.  This is excellent.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At Vera Bradley, the dividend yield is zero while the buyback yield is about 2%.  So shareholder yield is 2%.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Vera Bradley places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See Vera Bradley’s most recent 10-Q (October 31, 2020): https://investors.verabradley.com/static-files/55473d48-d0ef-49d6-92a9-da1f69d50928

See also the following writeup: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/VERA_BRADLEY_INC/1003334886

(You may have to become a guest member of www.valueinvestorsclub.com, but it is free to do so.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: EBITDA is $50 million.  With an EV/EBITDA of 5, the stock would be worth $5.22 a share, which is 35% lower than today’s $7.98.
    • Mid case: Normalized EBITDA is approximately $70 million.  With an EV/EBITDA of 7, the stock would be worth $12.40 a share, which is 55% higher than today’s $7.98.
    • High case: EBITDA may reach $90 million.  With an EV/EBITDA of 8, the stock would be worth $19.29, which is over 140% higher than today’s $7.98.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Lazydays Holdings, Inc. (LAZY)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

December 20, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Karora Resources Inc. (KRRGF): http://boolefund.com/karora-resources-inc-krrgf/

Diamond S Shipping Inc. (DSSI): http://boolefund.com/diamond-s-shipping-inc-dssi/

DHI Group, Inc. (DHX): http://boolefund.com/dhi-group-inc-dhx/

Saga Communications Inc. (SGA): http://boolefund.com/saga-communications-inc-sga/

Northwest Pipe Co. (NWPX): http://boolefund.com/northwest-pipe-co-nwpx/

Smart Sand Inc. (SND): http://boolefund.com/smart-sand-inc-snd/

Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK.TO): http://boolefund.com/terravest-industries-inc-tvk/

LGL Group, Inc. (LGL): http://boolefund.com/lgl-group-inc-lgl/

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII): http://boolefund.com/g-iii-apparel-group-ltd-giii/

Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF): http://boolefund.com/hummingbird-resources-plc-humrf/

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Lazydays Holdings, Inc. (LAZY).  Lazydays rents and sells RV’s.  This is from the company’s website: “Since 1976, Lazydays RV has built a reputation for providing an outstanding customer experience with exceptional service excellence and unparalleled product expertise, along with being a preferred place to rest and recharge with other RVers.  By offering the largest selection of RV brands from the nation’s leading manufacturers, state-of-the-art service facilities, and thousands of accessories and hard-to-find parts, Lazydays RV provides everything RVers need and want.”

LAZY has a market cap of $138.4 million, with $81.7 million in cash and $181.7 million in debt.  The stock price is $14.65.

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Lazydays Holdings:

    • EV/EBITDA = 3.82
    • P/E = 3.51
    • P/B = 1.47
    • P/CF = 1.21
    • P/S = 0.18

Normalized EBITDA is approximately $77 million, normalized net income is $39.4 million, cash flow is $114 million, and sales is $765 million.

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

Lazydays has a Piotroski F-Score of 7.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is good.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  Lazydays has TL/TA of 62.5%, which is OK.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At LAZY, insiders own about 2.5% of the shares, but much more than that when you include stock options and warrants.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At Lazydays, the dividend yield is zero while the buyback yield is negative 10.5%.  This means the company issued shares rather than buying them back.  This is not ideal, but it won’t matter if the company does well in the next few years.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Lazydays Holdings places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See LAZY’s most recent 10-Q (October 30, 2020): http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001721741/a49dcc33-e624-461a-87b4-21407932730b.pdf

See also the following writeup: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/LAZYDAYS_HOLDINGS_INC_LAZY/3401518578

(You may have to become a guest member of www.valueinvestorsclub.com, but it is free to do so.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: Book value is $9.97 per share, which is about 32 percent lower than today’s $14.65.
    • Mid case: A conservative estimate of normalized EBITDA is $56 million.  Also, the company is likely to acquire an additional $60 million in EBITDA.  Total EBITDA would be $116 million.  With an EV/EBITDA of 7, the stock would be worth $37.10, which is over 150% higher than today’s $14.65.
    • High case: Current EBITDA is $77 million.  The company is likely to acquire an additional $60 million in EBITDA.  Total EBITDA would be $137 million.  With an EV/EBITDA of 8, the stock would be worth $51.22, which is about 250% higher than today’s $14.65.

(Note:  There are currently 9.8 million shares outstanding.  But fully diluted shares add up to 20 million.  There are 6.88 million shares of preferred stock.  Converting warrants will create 2.3 million new shares.  And the exercise of stock options will create 1 million new shares.)

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Karora Resources Inc. (KRRGF)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

December 13, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Diamond S Shipping Inc. (DSSI): http://boolefund.com/diamond-s-shipping-inc-dssi/

DHI Group, Inc. (DHX): http://boolefund.com/dhi-group-inc-dhx/

Saga Communications Inc. (SGA): http://boolefund.com/saga-communications-inc-sga/

Northwest Pipe Co. (NWPX): http://boolefund.com/northwest-pipe-co-nwpx/

Smart Sand Inc. (SND): http://boolefund.com/smart-sand-inc-snd/

Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK.TO): http://boolefund.com/terravest-industries-inc-tvk/

LGL Group, Inc. (LGL): http://boolefund.com/lgl-group-inc-lgl/

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII): http://boolefund.com/g-iii-apparel-group-ltd-giii/

Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF): http://boolefund.com/hummingbird-resources-plc-humrf/

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Karora Resources Inc. (KRRGF).  Karora Resources is a multi-asset mineral resource company focused primarily on the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metal properties.  The company aims to become the next sustainable high quality mid-tier producer.  Its current operations are in Western Australia, while its headquarters are in Toronto, Canada.

KRRGF has a market cap of $380.7 million, with $52.5 million in cash and $30.4 million in debt.  The stock price is $2.62.  (All values are in U.S. dollars.)

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Karora Resources:

    • EV/EBITDA = 4.50
    • P/E = 13.04
    • P/NAV = 0.29
    • P/CF = 5.95
    • P/S = 2.12

P/NAV has been used in place of P/B.  Normalized EBITDA is $80 million, normalized earnings is $29.2 million, normalized cash flow is $64 million, and normalized sales is $180 million.  All of these figures are likely to grow significantly in the coming three to five years, especially given the just-announced outstanding drilling results.  See: https://tinyurl.com/yb5aqg3h

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

Karora Resources has a Piotroski F-Score of 7.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is good.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  Karora Resources has TL/TA of 50.2%, which is OK.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At Karora, management owns about 2% of the shares, worth $7.6 million.  This is decent.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At Korara Resources, the dividend yield is zero while the buyback yield is negative 13.5%.  This means the company issued shares rather than buying them back.  This is not ideal, but it won’t matter if the company does well in the next few years.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Karora Resources places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See Karora Resources’s most recent investor presentation (December 2, 2020): https://filecache.investorroom.com/mr5ircnw_karora/1704/Karora%20Presentation%202-Dec-2020.pdf

See also the company’s most recent quarterly financial statement dated September 30, 2020: https://www.karoraresources.com/financial-reports

Important note: The company just announced a 334% increase in proven and probable mineral reserves to 1.33 million ounces and a 167% increase in measured and indicated mineral resources to 2.52 million ounces.  See the press release here: https://tinyurl.com/yb5aqg3h

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: NAV (net asset value) has at least doubled (from $4.54 per share to $9.08 per share) based on the just-announced drilling results.  In the low case, the company may be worth half of the new NAV.  That’s $4.54, which is over 70% higher than today’s $2.62.
    • Mid case: NAV has at least doubled.  Karora is probably worth the new NAV.  That’s $9.08, over 245% higher than today’s $2.62.
    • High case: NAV may end up more than tripling.  If Karora is hitting on all cylinders and if the gold price moves higher, then the new NAV could be 3.5 times higher than the old NAV of $4.54.  That’s $15.90, which is over 500% higher than today’s $2.62.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Diamond S Shipping Inc. (DSSI)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

December 6, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

DHI Group, Inc. (DHX): http://boolefund.com/dhi-group-inc-dhx/

Saga Communications Inc. (SGA): http://boolefund.com/saga-communications-inc-sga/

Northwest Pipe Co. (NWPX): http://boolefund.com/northwest-pipe-co-nwpx/

Smart Sand Inc. (SND): http://boolefund.com/smart-sand-inc-snd/

Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK.TO): http://boolefund.com/terravest-industries-inc-tvk/

LGL Group, Inc. (LGL): http://boolefund.com/lgl-group-inc-lgl/

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII): http://boolefund.com/g-iii-apparel-group-ltd-giii/

Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF): http://boolefund.com/hummingbird-resources-plc-humrf/

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Diamond S Shipping Inc. (DSSI).  Diamond S Shipping provides seaborne transportation of crude oil, refined petroleum, and other products in the international shipping industry.  As of September 30, 2020, through its wholly owned subsidiaries, DSSI owns and operates 64 tanker vessels: 13 Suezmax crude carriers, one Aframax crude carrier, and 50 MR product carriers.  The company also controls and operates two Suezmax vessels through a joint venture.

DSSI has a market cap of $303.7 million, with $114.3 million in cash and $736.3 million in debt.  The stock price is $7.51.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Diamond S Shipping:

    • EV/EBITDA = 3.58
    • P/E = 2.83
    • P/B = 0.24
    • P/CF = 1.41
    • P/S = 0.44

(For the trailing twelve months, EBITDA is $260.1 million, earnings is $107.2 million, cash flow is $215.5 million, and sales is $692.2 million.  These figures are high compared to history, but it’s likely that they will occur again in the next few years.)

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

Diamond S Shipping has a Piotroski F-Score of 5.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is mediocre, but not bad.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  Diamond S Shipping has TL/TA of 37.6%, which is good.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At DSSI, the CEO owns about 2% of the shares.  This is decent.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At Diamond S Shipping, the dividend yield is zero while the buyback yield is negative 11.9%.  This means the company issued shares rather than buying them back.  (This is not ideal, but won’t matter if the company does well in the next few years.)

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Diamond S Shipping places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See Diamond S Shipping’s most recent investor presentation for Q3 2020: https://s2.q4cdn.com/950905705/files/doc_presentations/2020/Diamond-S-Shipping-Inc-Q3-2020-Earnings-Presentation.pdf

Also, check out the following write-up: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/DIAMOND_S_SHIPPING_INC/5877749532#description

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: Book value per share is $30.92 a share.  In the worst case, the company may be worth 0.3 times book value.  That’s $9.28 per share, which is 23% higher than today’s $7.51.
    • Mid case: DSSI is probably worth book value of $30.92 a share.  That’s over 310% higher than today’s $7.51.
    • High case: If conditions improve significantly on a sustained basis, DSSI may be worth 1.5 times book value.  That’s $46.38, which is over 515% higher than today’s $7.51.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

DHI Group, Inc. (DHX)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

November 29, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Saga Communications Inc. (SGA): http://boolefund.com/saga-communications-inc-sga/

Northwest Pipe Co. (NWPX): http://boolefund.com/northwest-pipe-co-nwpx/

Smart Sand Inc. (SND): http://boolefund.com/smart-sand-inc-snd/

Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK.TO): http://boolefund.com/terravest-industries-inc-tvk/

LGL Group, Inc. (LGL): http://boolefund.com/lgl-group-inc-lgl/

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII): http://boolefund.com/g-iii-apparel-group-ltd-giii/

Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF): http://boolefund.com/hummingbird-resources-plc-humrf/

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at DHI Group, Inc. (DHX).  DHI Group is the parent company of three internet job sites: Dice, ClearanceJobs, and eFinancialCareers.  Dice focuses on technology and engineering jobs, eFinancialCareers focuses on jobs in financial services, and ClearanceJobs focuses on jobs for security-cleared professionals.  Art Zeile became CEO in April 2018 and he is leading a turnaround effort.

DHI Group has a market cap of $102.3 million, with $26.8 million in cash and $54.2 million in debt.  The stock price is $1.95.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for DHI Group:

    • EV/EBITDA = 3.24
    • P/E = 3.98
    • P/B = 0.76
    • P/CF = 3.27
    • P/S = 0.68

(Normalized EBITDA is $40 million, normalized earnings is $27.5 million, normalized operating cash flow is $31.3 million, and normalized revenue is $150 million.)

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

DHI Group has a Piotroski F-Score of 5.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is mediocre, but not bad.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  DHI Group has TL/TA of 50.6%, which is decent.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At DHI Group, insider ownership is about 10%, which is good.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At DHI Group, the dividend yield is zero while the buyback yield is 5.87%.  So the shareholder yield is 5.87%.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of DHI Group places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See DHI Group’s most recent quarterly report: https://s24.q4cdn.com/133441296/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/DHX-10Q-2020-Q3.pdf

Also, check out the following write-up: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/DHI_GROUP_INC/0739941408

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: Book value per share is $2.58 a share.  This is over 30% higher than today’s $1.95.
    • Mid case: Normalized EBITDA is approximately $40 million.  With an EV/EBITDA of 8, the stock would be worth $5.58, which is over 185% higher than today’s $1.95.
    • High case: EBITDA may reach $45 million and keep growing at mid single digits.  With an EV/EBITDA of 9, the stock would be worth $7.20, which is about 270% higher than today’s $1.95.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Saga Communications Inc. (SGA)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

November 22, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Northwest Pipe Co. (NWPX): http://boolefund.com/northwest-pipe-co-nwpx/

Smart Sand Inc. (SND): http://boolefund.com/smart-sand-inc-snd/

Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK.TO): http://boolefund.com/terravest-industries-inc-tvk/

LGL Group, Inc. (LGL): http://boolefund.com/lgl-group-inc-lgl/

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII): http://boolefund.com/g-iii-apparel-group-ltd-giii/

Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF): http://boolefund.com/hummingbird-resources-plc-humrf/

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Saga Communications Inc. (SGA).   Saga Communications is a radio broadcaster.

The company has a market cap of $127.6 million, with $48.3 million in cash and $16.6 million in debt.  The stock price is $21.48.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Saga Communications:

    • EV/EBITDA = 3.57
    • P/E = 8.50
    • P/B = 0.68
    • P/CF = 5.10
    • P/S = 1.06

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

Saga Communications has a Piotroski F-Score of 6.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is decent.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  Saga Communications has TL/TA of 22.6%, which is very good.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At Saga Communications, there are 954,000  class B shares and 5.039 million class A shares.  The CEO, Ed Christian, owns all of the class B shares, which means insider ownership is just over 15%.  Each class B share is worth ten class A shares when it comes to voting, giving Christian full control of the company.  Christian has a good long-term track record of building value.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At Saga Communications, the dividend yield is 2.05% while the buyback yield is 0.5%.  So the shareholder yield is 2.55%.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Saga Communications places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See Saga Communications’ most recent quarterly report: http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000886136/1de3a355-3fb9-46c9-82c7-54b7f1dfafd0.pdf

Also, check out the following write-up: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/SAGA_COMMUNICATIONS_

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: Book value per share is $31.70 a share.  This is over 45% higher than today’s $21.48.
    • Mid case: Normalized EBITDA is approximately $32 million.  With an EV/EBITDA of 8, the stock would be worth $49.55, which is 130% higher than today’s $21.48.
    • High case: EBITDA may reach $35 million.  With an EV/EBITDA of 10, the stock would be worth $65.38, which is over 200% higher than today’s $21.48.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Northwest Pipe Co. (NWPX)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

November 15, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Smart Sand Inc. (SND): http://boolefund.com/smart-sand-inc-snd/

Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK.TO): http://boolefund.com/terravest-industries-inc-tvk/

LGL Group, Inc. (LGL): http://boolefund.com/lgl-group-inc-lgl/

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII): http://boolefund.com/g-iii-apparel-group-ltd-giii/

Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF): http://boolefund.com/hummingbird-resources-plc-humrf/

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX).  Northwest Pipe Co. is the nation’s leading manufacturer of engineered water pipeline and infrastructure.

Northwest Pipe has a market cap of $273 million, with $30.4 million in cash and $46.5 million in debt.  The stock price is $27.82.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Northwest Pipe:

    • EV/EBITDA = 6.67
    • P/E = 10.56
    • P/B = 1.03
    • P/CF = 4.20
    • P/S = 0.95

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

Northwest Pipe has a Piotroski F-Score of 6.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is decent.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  Northwest Pipe has TL/TA of 28.1%, which is quite good.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At Northwest Pipe, management owns about 3% of the shares, worth over $8 million.  This is good.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At Northwest Pipe, both the dividend yield and the buyback yield are zero.  So the shareholder yield is zero.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Northwest Pipe places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See Northwest Pipe’s investor presentation from August 2020: file:///C:/Users/jb/Downloads/NWPX%20Investor%20Presentation%20(August%202020)_vFINAL.PDF

Also, check out the following write-up: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/NORTHWEST_PIPE_CO/6479075476

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: Book value per share is $26.89.  This is 3.3% lower than today’s $27.82.
    • Mid case: Normalized earnings are approximately $3.30 per share.  With a P/E of 12, the stock would be worth $39.60, over 40% higher than today’s $27.82.
    • High case: Normalized earnings could reach $4.00 per share.  With a P/E of 15, the stock would be worth $60, about 115% higher than today’s $27.82.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Smart Sand Inc. (SND)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

November 8, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK.TO): http://boolefund.com/terravest-industries-inc-tvk/

LGL Group, Inc. (LGL): http://boolefund.com/lgl-group-inc-lgl/

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII): http://boolefund.com/g-iii-apparel-group-ltd-giii/

Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF): http://boolefund.com/hummingbird-resources-plc-humrf/

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Smart Sand Inc. (SND).   Smart Sand is a low-cost producer of high-quality Northern White raw frac sand (NWS).  Raw frac sand is used as a proppant to keep a hydraulic fracture open, allowing the release and capture of hydrocarbons.

The company has one producing mine in Oakdale, Wisconsin, next to the Canadian Pacific railroad, which allows Smart Sand to deliver its Northern White Sand to any shale producer in North America.

Smart Sand has a market cap of $62 million, with $11 million in cash and $63.6 million in debt.  The stock price is $1.50.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Smart Sand:

    • EV/EBITDA = 1.89
    • P/E = 3.19
    • P/B = 0.24
    • P/CF = 2.33
    • P/S = 0.29

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

Smart Sand has a Piotroski F-Score of 7.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is good.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  Smart Sand has TL/TA of 33.4%, which is good.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At Smart Sand, the CEO Charles E. Young owns over 15% of the shares, while officers and directors own about 8%.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At Smart Sand, both the dividend yield and the buyback yield are zero.  So the shareholder yield is zero.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Smart Sand places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See Smart Sand’s investor presentation from September 2020: https://ir.smartsand.com/static-files/6e42337b-21da-4e7c-88fa-cfcdc0efe669

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: EBITDA may fall to $20 million.  With an EV/EBITDA multiple of 4x, the stock would be worth $0.97 a share, which is 35.6% lower than today’s $1.50.
    • Mid case: The stock is probably worth at least book value, which is $7.04 a share.  That’s about 370% higher than today’s $1.50.
    • High case: EBITDA is likely to reach at least $100 million if the market recovers in the next few years.  With an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5x, the stock would be worth $11.14 a share, which is over 640% higher than today’s $1.50.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK.TO)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

October 25, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

LGL Group, Inc. (LGL): http://boolefund.com/lgl-group-inc-lgl/

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII): http://boolefund.com/g-iii-apparel-group-ltd-giii/

Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF): http://boolefund.com/hummingbird-resources-plc-humrf/

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK.TO).   Terravest is #1 in North America at selling home heating oil products (mostly storage tanks).  They also sell transport vehicles and storage vessels for propane, anhydrous ammonia, and NGL (they’re #1 in Canada and in the top three in the U.S.).  And the company sells oil and gas wellhead processing equipment (they’re #1 in Canada).

Terravest has a market cap of $261.5 million, with $17.3 million in cash and $141.6 million in debt.  The stock price is $14.00.  (All amounts are in Canadian dollars.)

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for Terravest Industries:

    • EV/EBITDA = 7.67
    • P/E = 11.89
    • P/B = 2.39
    • P/CF = 4.32
    • P/S = 0.83

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

Terravest has a Piotroski F-Score of 7.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is good.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  Terravest has TL/TA of 56.7%, which is OK.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At Terravest, insider ownership is approximately 50%.  This is excellent.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At Terravest Industries, dividend yield is 2.8%.  The buyback yield is 6.5%.  Thus, shareholder yield is 9.3%.  This is very good.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of Terravest places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See Terravest’s most recent reports: https://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00033827

Also, check out the following write-up: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/TERRAVEST_INDUSTRIES_INC/6083042253

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Important Note:  Terravest Industries is being run by value investors who are focused on maximizing the intrinsic value of the company over time.

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: Trailing EPS (earnings per share) is $1.18.  At a P/E of 10, the shares would be worth $11.77, which is about 16% lower than today’s $14.00.
    • Mid case: EPS is likely to reach at least $2.50 in a few years.  (EPS grew at 60% a year from 2010 to 2019.  EPS won’t grow as fast going forward, but it will still grow.)  With a P/E of 14, Terravest would be worth $35 a share, which is about 150% higher than today’s $14.00.
    • High case: EPS may reach at least $4.00 in three to five years.  With a P/E of 15, Terravest would be worth $60 a share, which is over 325% higher than today’s $14.00.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.

LGL Group, Inc. (LGL)

(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)

October 25, 2020

We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.

Recently, we looked at the following companies:

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII): http://boolefund.com/g-iii-apparel-group-ltd-giii/

Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF): http://boolefund.com/hummingbird-resources-plc-humrf/

Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/

Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/

AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/

Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/

Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/

Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/

Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/

Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/

Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/

Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/

Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/

SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/

Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/

TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/

Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/

Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/

Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/

This week, we are going to look at LGL Group, Inc. (LGL).   The company designs and manufactures customized electronic components used mainly to control the frequency or timing of electronic signals in communications systems.

LGL has a market cap of $47.7 million, with $22.2 million in cash and no debt as of June 30, 2020.  The stock price is $9.15.

 

Step One

First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics.  Here are the numbers for LGL Group:

    • EV/EBITDA = 7.30
    • P/E = 7.89
    • P/B = 1.23
    • P/CF = 12.55
    • P/S = 1.44

Step Two

Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company.  For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/

LGL Group has a Piotroski F-Score of 6.  (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.)  This is OK.

Step Three

Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.

We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA).  LGL has TL/TA of 9.4%, which is excellent.

Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders.  At LGL Group, insider ownership is approximately 3.5%.  This is OK.

Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield.  At LGL, dividend yield is zero.  The buyback yield is zero.  Thus, shareholder yield is zero.

Each component of the ranking has a different weight.  The overall combined ranking of LGL places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.

Step Four

The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.

See LGL Group’s most recent quarterly report (filed August 2020): http://filings.irdirect.net/data/61004/000156459020039680/lgl-10q_20200630.pdf

Also, check out the following write-up: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/LGL_GROUP_INC/9363632622#description

(To access the link to valueinvestorsclub.com, you may have to create a guest membership, which is free.)

Important Note:  The highly successful value investors Mario Gabelli and Marc Gabelli are significant shareholders of LGL.  Marc Gabelli is on the board of directors of LGL.  The current CEO of LGL, Ivan Arteaga, is also a very successful value investor who previously worked for GAMCO Investors, Inc., which is Mario Gabelli’s investment management firm.

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: The company may be worth book value, which is $7.42 per share.  That’s 19% lower than today’s stock price of $9.15 a share.
    • Mid case: EPS (earnings per share) is likely to reach at least $1.50 once the global economy returns to normal (which is likely to happen within the next year or less).  With a P/E of 14, LGL would be worth $21 a share, which is about 130% higher than today’s $9.15.
    • High case: EPS (earnings per share) may reach at least $2.00 once the global economy returns to normal.  With a P/E of 16, LGL would be worth $32 a share, which is about 250% higher than today’s $9.15.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.  See the historical chart here:  http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps.  Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals.  We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio.  The size of each position is determined by its rank.  Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost).  Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods.  We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net).  The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.