CASE STUDY: Pine Cliff Energy

A light bulb with the reflection of it's filament.


May 29, 2022

Pine Cliff Energy (PIFYF) is a Canadian natural gas producer. Pine Cliff Energy has a low-risk, low decline, natural gas asset consolidation strategy in Western Canada with 11 acquisitions since 2012. PIFYF has one of the lowest decline rates in the oil and gas sector with a base decline rate of about 6% on base production.

Demand for natural gas is likely to continue to surprise to the upside. Power burn demand is likely to remain high. At the same time, there is a shortage of global LNG. New LNG export capacity is being added in the U.S. and Canada. High power burn plus high LNG gas exports is causing total natural gas demand to be very high.

Furthermore, natural gas storage in the U.S. is 16% below its 5-year average. And natural gas storage in Canada is at an unprecedented low level.

Natural gas production in the U.S. remains flat.

With high demand, low storage, and flat supply, natural gas prices are likely to remain high and will probably go higher. The AECO near-month price is $7.53 (CAD/GJ) while the NYMEX near-month price is $8.67 ($/mmbtu).

Here is the Pine Cliff Energy’s most recent investor presentation: https://pinecliff-pull.b-cdn.net/Corporate%20Presentation%202022%2005%2004%20-%20Final.pdf

For 2022, revenue will be about $175 million, EBITDA $146 million, cash flow $135 million, and earnings $95 million. The current market cap is $503.6 million, while enterprise value (EV) is $526.5 million.

Using these figures, we get the following multiples:

    • EV/EBITDA = 3.61
    • P/E = 5.30
    • P/B = 3.49
    • P/CF = 3.73
    • P/S = 2.88

Insider ownership is 12.9%, which is good. TL/TA (total liabilities/total assets) is 21.6%, which is very good. ROE is 828.24%, which is outstanding.

The Piotroski F_score is 9, which is excellent.

Intrinsic value scenarios:

    • Low case: Natural gas prices could fall during a global recession. The stock of PIFYF could decline 50% or more.
    • Mid case: Current EV/CF (where CF is cash flow) is 3.9. The average EV/CF for Pine Cliff Energy historically is 8.0. With EV/CF at 8.0, the stock would be worth $3.12, which is 105% higher than today’s $1.52.
    • High case: Natural gas prices could increase significantly, which means Pine Cliff Energy’s cash flow would increase significantly. The stock could be worth at least $4.50, which is close to 200% higher than today’s $1.52.

Risks

There will probably be a bear market and/or global recession during which natural gas prices fall temporarily but then quickly rebound. In this case, PIFYF stock would fall temporarily but then quickly rebound.

 

BOOLE MICROCAP FUND

An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time.

This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps. Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals. We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.

There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio. The size of each position is determined by its rank. Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost). Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approachesintrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.

The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods. We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net). The Boole Fund has low fees.

 

If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.

My e-mail: jb@boolefund.com

 

 

Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.