(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)
July 19, 2020
We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.
Recently, we looked at the following companies:
Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/
Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/
Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/
Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/
Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/
SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/
Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/
TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/
Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/
Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/
Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/
This week, we are going to look Select Interior Concepts, Inc. (SIC). Select Interior Concepts is a leading provider of interior surface products for residential and commercial builders. The company has two subsidiaries: Residential Design Services (“RDS”) and Architectural Surfaces Group (“ASG”). Select Interior Concepts offers a broad range of design-oriented products across flooring, countertops, cabinets, and other highly desirable and customizable high end interior products. SIC has a market cap of $107 million, with $37 million in cash and $211 million in debt.
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First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics. Here are the numbers for Select Interior Concepts:
- EV/EBITDA = 5.40
- P/E = 15.30
- P/B = 0.68
- P/CF = 3.78
- P/S = 0.18
Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company. For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/
SIC has a Piotroski F-Score of 7. (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.) This is good.
Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.
We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA). Select Interior Concepts has TL/TA of 65%, which is decent.
Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders. At Select Interior Concepts, insider ownership is approximately 2%.
Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield. At SIC, dividend yield is zero and buyback yield is about 1.4%, so shareholder yield is 1.4%.
Each component of the ranking has a different weight. The overall combined ranking of Select Interior Concepts places it in the top 10 stocks on our screen, or the top 0.4% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.
The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.
Here is the company’s investor presentation from June, 2020: https://ir.selectinteriorconcepts.com/static-files/d740e2ed-ec53-404b-ae7f-49920c6d46c4
Note that Select Interior Concepts has a new CEO, Bill Varner, as of June, 2020. Previously, Varner was CEO of United Subcontractors, Inc. (USI), a leading provider of insulation installation and distribution services to the residential and commercial construction markets. Prior to USI, Varner served as President and CEO of Aquilex Corporation, a leading provider of specialty services to the energy sector.
Select Interior Concepts has never missed a closing, and 90% of their business is repeat. Moreover, with its asset light business model and with variable costs, the company has been able to position itself well to weather the downturn caused by the coronavirus.
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Intrinsic value scenarios:
- Low case: Book value per share is $6.20. SIC could be worth 50% of book value, or $3.10 a share. That’s 26.5% lower than today’s $4.22.
- Mid case: SIC is likely worth at least 1.5x book value. That’s $9.30, or 120% higher than today’s $4.22.
- High case: Normalized EBITDA is roughly $60 million. SIC is probably worth an EV/EBITDA of at least 9x. That would mean the stock is worth $14.46, which is over 240% higher than today’s $4.22.
BOOLE MICROCAP FUND
An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time. See the historical chart here: http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/
This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps. Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals. We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.
There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio. The size of each position is determined by its rank. Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost). Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.
The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods. We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net). The Boole Fund has low fees.
If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.
My e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.