(Image: Zen Buddha Silence, by Marilyn Barbone)
December 20, 2020
We continue with examples of Boole’s quantitative investment process in action.
Recently, we looked at the following companies:
Karora Resources Inc. (KRRGF): http://boolefund.com/karora-resources-inc-krrgf/
Diamond S Shipping Inc. (DSSI): http://boolefund.com/diamond-s-shipping-inc-dssi/
DHI Group, Inc. (DHX): http://boolefund.com/dhi-group-inc-dhx/
Saga Communications Inc. (SGA): http://boolefund.com/saga-communications-inc-sga/
Northwest Pipe Co. (NWPX): http://boolefund.com/northwest-pipe-co-nwpx/
Smart Sand Inc. (SND): http://boolefund.com/smart-sand-inc-snd/
Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK.TO): http://boolefund.com/terravest-industries-inc-tvk/
LGL Group, Inc. (LGL): http://boolefund.com/lgl-group-inc-lgl/
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII): http://boolefund.com/g-iii-apparel-group-ltd-giii/
Hummingbird Resources Plc. (HUMRF): http://boolefund.com/hummingbird-resources-plc-humrf/
Micropac Industries, Inc. (MPAD): http://boolefund.com/micropac-industries-inc-mpad/
Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI): http://boolefund.com/barrett-business-services-inc-bbsi/
Delta Apparel, Inc. (DLA): http://boolefund.com/delta-apparel-inc-dla/
AdvanSix, Inc. (ASIX): http://boolefund.com/advansix-inc-asix/
Universal Technical Institute (UTI): http://boolefund.com/universal-technical-institute-uti/
Burnham Holdings Inc (BURCA): http://boolefund.com/burnham-holdings-inc-burca/
Select Interior Concepts (SIC): http://boolefund.com/select-interior-concepts-sic/
Manitowoc (MTW): http://boolefund.com/manitowoc-mtw/
Ciner Resources LP (CINR): http://boolefund.com/ciner-resources-lp-cinr/
Global Ship Lease (GSL): http://boolefund.com/global-ship-lease-gsl/
Alico, Inc. (ALCO): http://boolefund.com/alico-inc-alco/
Genco Shipping (GNK): http://boolefund.com/genco-shipping-gnk/
SEACOR Marine (SMHI): http://boolefund.com/seacor-marine-smhi/
Tidewater (TDW): http://boolefund.com/tidewater-tdw/
TravelCenters of America (TA): http://boolefund.com/travelcenters-america-ta/
Teekay Tankers (TNK): http://boolefund.com/teekay-tankers-tnk/
Ranger Energy Services (RNGR): http://boolefund.com/ranger-energy-services-rngr/
Macro Enterprises (Canada: MCR.V): http://boolefund.com/macro-enterprises-mcr-v/
This week, we are going to look at Lazydays Holdings, Inc. (LAZY). Lazydays rents and sells RV’s. This is from the company’s website: “Since 1976, Lazydays RV has built a reputation for providing an outstanding customer experience with exceptional service excellence and unparalleled product expertise, along with being a preferred place to rest and recharge with other RVers. By offering the largest selection of RV brands from the nation’s leading manufacturers, state-of-the-art service facilities, and thousands of accessories and hard-to-find parts, Lazydays RV provides everything RVers need and want.”
LAZY has a market cap of $138.4 million, with $81.7 million in cash and $181.7 million in debt. The stock price is $14.65.
First we screen for cheapness based on five metrics. Here are the numbers for Lazydays Holdings:
- EV/EBITDA = 3.82
- P/E = 3.51
- P/B = 1.47
- P/CF = 1.21
- P/S = 0.18
Normalized EBITDA is approximately $77 million, normalized net income is $39.4 million, cash flow is $114 million, and sales is $765 million.
Next we calculate the Piotroski F-Score, which is a measure of the fundamental strength of the company. For more on the Piostroski F-Score, see my blog post here: http://boolefund.com/piotroski-f-score/
Lazydays has a Piotroski F-Score of 7. (The best score possible is 9, while the worst score is 0.) This is good.
Then we rank the company based on low debt, high insider ownership, and shareholder yield.
We measure debt levels by looking at total liabilities (TL) to total assets (TA). Lazydays has TL/TA of 62.5%, which is OK.
Insider ownership is important because that means that the people running the company have interests that are aligned with the interests of other shareholders. At LAZY, insiders own about 2.5% of the shares, but much more than that when you include stock options and warrants.
Shareholder yield is the dividend yield plus the buyback yield. At Lazydays, the dividend yield is zero while the buyback yield is negative 10.5%. This means the company issued shares rather than buying them back. This is not ideal, but it won’t matter if the company does well in the next few years.
Each component of the ranking has a different weight. The overall combined ranking of Lazydays Holdings places it in the top 50 stocks on our screen, or the top 2% of the more than two thousand companies we ranked.
The final step is to study the company’s financial statements, presentations, and quarterly conference calls to (i) check for non-recurring items, hidden liabilities, and bad accounting; (ii) estimate intrinsic value—how much the business is worth—using scenarios for low, mid, and high cases.
See LAZY’s most recent 10-Q (October 30, 2020): http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001721741/a49dcc33-e624-461a-87b4-21407932730b.pdf
See also the following writeup: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/LAZYDAYS_HOLDINGS_INC_LAZY/3401518578
(You may have to become a guest member of www.valueinvestorsclub.com, but it is free to do so.)
Intrinsic value scenarios:
- Low case: Book value is $9.97 per share, which is about 32 percent lower than today’s $14.65.
- Mid case: A conservative estimate of normalized EBITDA is $56 million. Also, the company is likely to acquire an additional $60 million in EBITDA. Total EBITDA would be $116 million. With an EV/EBITDA of 7, the stock would be worth $37.10, which is over 150% higher than today’s $14.65.
- High case: Current EBITDA is $77 million. The company is likely to acquire an additional $60 million in EBITDA. Total EBITDA would be $137 million. With an EV/EBITDA of 8, the stock would be worth $51.22, which is about 250% higher than today’s $14.65.
(Note: There are currently 9.8 million shares outstanding. But fully diluted shares add up to 20 million. There are 6.88 million shares of preferred stock. Converting warrants will create 2.3 million new shares. And the exercise of stock options will create 1 million new shares.)
BOOLE MICROCAP FUND
An equal weighted group of micro caps generally far outperforms an equal weighted (or cap-weighted) group of larger stocks over time. See the historical chart here: http://boolefund.com/best-performers-microcap-stocks/
This outperformance increases significantly by focusing on cheap micro caps. Performance can be further boosted by isolating cheap microcap companies that show improving fundamentals. We rank microcap stocks based on these and similar criteria.
There are roughly 10-20 positions in the portfolio. The size of each position is determined by its rank. Typically the largest position is 15-20% (at cost), while the average position is 8-10% (at cost). Positions are held for 3 to 5 years unless a stock approaches intrinsic value sooner or an error has been discovered.
The mission of the Boole Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 Index by at least 5% per year (net of fees) over 5-year periods. We also aim to outpace the Russell Microcap Index by at least 2% per year (net). The Boole Fund has low fees.
If you are interested in finding out more, please e-mail me or leave a comment.
My e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Disclosures: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Boole Capital, LLC.