December 11, 2022
Atlas Engineered Products operates in Canada’s truss, wall panels, and engineered wood products industry. Atlas has acquired and improved 7 companies since going public in late 2017.
Atlas’s specialist design team uses cutting edge design and engineering technology to ensure that their clients get consistent, accurate, top-quality products.
Here is the company’s most recent investor presentation: https://www.atlasengineeredproducts.com/dist/assets/presentation/AEP_Investor_Deck_Aug_2022-min.pdf
Here is a good writeup on Value Investors Club: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/ATLAS_ENGINEERED_PRODCTS_LTD/5737776840
The market for trusses, wall panels, and modular systems is local because it is too expensive to transport such large items over a long distance. As a result, this market is extremely fragmented. There are hundreds of small regional operators. Many of these operators need succession planning. Atlas thus has an opportunity to continue making acquisitions.
There are clear benefits for Atlas to consolidate this market. These include operational efficiencies, technological advances, advantages of scale in procurement, and expanded product distribution. (Many regional operators are not able to invest in technology and automation.)
Atlas focuses on the higher added value and most scalable products. It quickly winds down or sells lower margin businesses.
Here are the current multiples:
- EV/EBITDA = 2.00
- P/E = 5.25
- P/B = 1.15
- P/CF = 2.69
- P/S = 0.80
Insider ownership is 17.7%, which is good. TL/TA (total liabilities/total assets) is 38.4%, which is also good. ROE is 41.1%, which is excellent.
The Piotroski F_score is 8, which is very good.
Intrinsic value scenarios:
- Low case: During a recession, the stock could fall 50% from $0.54 to $0.27.
- Mid case: The current EV/EBITDA is 2.0, but in a normal environment it should be at least 6.0. That would mean the stock is worth $1.62, which is 200% above today’s $0.54.
- High case: Cash flow is likely to keep growing at 30% per year (or more). In five years, cash flow will be 270% higher. If price-to-cash flow doubles to 5.4, then the share price will reach $3.46, which is 540% higher than today’s $0.54.
The housing market is cyclical. Economies are slowing down as interest rates rise. There will likely be a recession (which would slow down organic growth but increase acquisitions). But over the longer term, demographics are a tailwind.
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